NVBC Seminar 9. Start At The End. Exit strategy
Tuesday, June 8th, 2010The final seminar in the New Ventures BC 10-week seminar series is tonight, as Vancouver Angel Investor Dr. Basil Peters presents “Start at the End: Exit Strategy”.
Peters is the author of Early Exits: Exit Strategies for Entrepreneurs and Angel Investors (But Maybe Not Venture Capitalists). He is the Fund Manager for Fundamental Technologies II – an angel investment fund.
Dr. Basil Peters: Start at the End – Your Exit Strategy
I was a technology entrepreneur and my comments come from a technology background.
For Investors, motivations are different.
We think of your company as a black box with some sweat equity from you, some equity from us and some capital gains spit out of the end. That’s it.
Exits are the best part of being an entrepreneur and an investor, but it’s the least well understood.
Much of what you hear about investments is wrong. And there are quite a few dirty secrets to boot. That’s been compounded by the state of the economy.
There are basically two ways to sell your company: an IPO or an M&A Transaction (private sale). These days, it’s just M&A.
What happened to the IPOs?
The economy and regulatory changes like Sarbanes Oxley.
What about M&A exits?
The media distorts our perception by focusing on the big deals. But the dirty secret is those big transactions rarely are good deals for the buyers. Corporate America is now figuring that out. They’re not going to their boards with a billion dollar buy proposal unless they’re sure it’s going to work.
Most Exits in M&A’s are under $20 million. The median price is likely under $15 million. That’s a much smaller number I would have thought before I did my research. But if you’re building a company today, the reality is you’re probably going to sell it for less than $15 million (and that’s a good thing!).
Advice from a Fortune 500 Friend
The big companies know they’re not good at startups. They suck at building businesses from zero to $20 million in value. But they’re good at building companies up from $20 million to $30 million.
A company priced at $100 million is already out of our sweet spot to buy. But a $20 million buy is easier to get approved just within his division.
Google wants even earlier exits, according to Charles Rim, one of the top Google M&A guys. “90 per cent of our transactions are small transactions — less than 20 people, less than $20 million in value.”
They actually prefer companies that are pre-revenue (as in, pre-appreciable revenue — under $1 million in revenue). This interview with Charles Rim is available on Basil’s blog.
Big Companies Have Cash
That’s a problem. “Shareholders are complaining — spend it on companies or give it back to us!” They have billions of dollars in cash only earning one per cent interest. They’re in a feeding frenzy to buy start-ups.
The most familiar buyers are Fortune 500 companies, but medium-sized companies are also aggressive. Private Equity funds are also coming onto the market. As well, there are plenty of individuals who are not ready to retire who want to buy companies.
How Big Does My Company Need to Be Before I Sell It?
It’s a common misunderstanding that you must grow it to be profitable, or grow it to X million in value. The true determination is just to prove the business model.
For example in a recurring revenue business, you have a spreadsheet that clearly shows actual results for gross margin per customer, customer lifetime and cost of customer acquisition. At that point, you can build a credible projection to start having a discussion with a qualified buyer.
That’s the threshold, often well before the first $1 million in revenue and before the company is growing fast.
It’s always better to sell as soon as your prove the model. Sell on an upward trend, on the promise and not the reality. Very often, “stuff happens” that makes the business not as great as it was just a little while before. Most entrepreneurs end up riding it over the top, past its best-before sell date. Don’t ride it over the top!
Entrepreneurs may think they’ve figured out the best time to sell the company, that it’s best days are behind it, but the exit can actually take up to sixteen months. Between the time you decided to sell and the time of selling, the optimal value you can get goes down as “stuff happens”.
The Internet has accelerated everything. You can market and sell to hundreds of millions of prospects in just days. This has accelerated almost every other aspect of the start-up life-cycle. Now we have “weekenders”, where businesses come up with the entire business plan over the weekend. The definition of early exit can now almost be something that happens before the end of the weekend!
People are now creating businesses in 30 days (and if they aren’t working great, you can sell the idea on Flippa after 20 days!).
Exits in just 2-3 years: Flickr, Delicious, Club Penguin, YouTube, Playfish, Mint, AdMob. Two or three years is plenty of time to make the business work and sell it.
Do You Even Need Investors?
100 years from now, this time will be recognized as a golden era for entrepreneurs. Never before have there been so many opportunities to build businesses that are easy to capitalize on. It’s all because of the Internet.
Capital funds are a legacy of an earlier time. Investors often don’t get it. But in this open source world, we can build valuable mashup companies with no money.
Plenty of Fish got started in an apartment. MetroLyrics started with no capital and is probably worth tens of millions of dollars. The world has changed. You’ve got resources even if you’ve got no money.
My wish for you is that you bootstrap. It should always be your first choice. The most spectacular start-up business models started with no capital. Most companies today really don’t need very much capital.
What is venture capital?
The type of financing we’re talking about is private equity (small v, small c). It includes private equity, angel investors, VC funds and friends and family. The big surprise in that space is how big friends and family are: they tend to invest six to seven times more than VCs and Angels. That’s where the big money is for new company financing.
Who Actually Finances Start-Ups?
Angel Investors fund about 27 times more than VCs. About 50,000 companies in America get funded by Angels. By and large, you’re better off going after angel funding than VCs.
Some Surprising Data
In America, each year VC Funds invest about $20 billion.
Angel investors also invest about $20 billlion. Friends and family investors invest about 5 to 10 times more than either VCs or Angels (Fools Gold by Scott Shane).
Angels used to top out investment at around $2 million. Today, angels in groups are now coming together to invest in companies. I now see angels regularly invest $5 million to $10 million.
South of the border in places like Bellingham, there’s money and they’re collaborating over social networks. They’re investing across the border into Canada.
First Exit Strategy, Then Finance
What I wish for your companies is to build a company by first figuring out the kind of business your starting. Build a team on an exit strategy to build the business. Then develop the financing plan. Next, start contacting investors (if you need them). If we adopted this sequence, we’d have more successful companies.
When you add investor money, you’re adding their “DNA” to your own corporate DNA. A lot of times, that hybrid doesn’t survive. Check the compatibility first!
Different sources of financing are compatible with different exit strategies. $10 to $20 million exits are not possible if you get money from VCs. They need a certain return and they will determine when you can sell. Making a mistake about this can cost you the entire company (It almost cost me my first company).
Don’t blow the biggest deal of your life.
Build the exit strategy into your business plan. Even if you have a lifestyle business, you have an exit strategy (you die, somebody inherits the assets).
If you want to sell to Google after two years instead of having a lifestyle business, you must have a different type of business plan.
Question
Can you have multiple exit strategies?
Answer
In theory, yes. But in practice, it’s better to develop a focused exit strategy early (and get the team moving in that direction).
The exit strategy could be as simple as:
Our exit strategy is to (sell the company) in about _ years for around $_ million.
It’s surprising how often there is a serious misalignment from key stakeholders on the exit strategy. The only way to check is to get a “signoff” on a written exit strategy.
It usually takes at least one offsite planning retreat to realign.
Conclusions:
- Most acquisitions are under $20 million. That’s the goal if you’re not leaving the shares to your kids.
- Modern companies don’t need much capital.
- Bootstrap if you possibly can,.
- Angels can finance up to $5 to $10 million.
- Target an exit for under $30 million.
- To succeed, start to plan at the end.
Resources
www.Early-Exits.com – book on exit strategies for entrepreneurs.
www.AngelBlog.net – blog for entrepreneurs and angel investors.
www.BasilPeters.com – for this PowerPoint and videos of previous talks.
Remember: Falling in love with the company and not thinking of selling can cost you millions of dollars.
In business stuff happens. Big companies do steal ideas. A company I invested in was Brightside that made liquid crystal displays. We sold it for $28 million. Less than a month later, I saw models from Samsung. It seemed as though they took the idea after signing an NDA — and basically went into production that week.
One of the reasons for selling early is that if you hang around too long, the big guys will steal your business.
Bootstrapping is a religious belief. It’s a belief that you can build a company without investors. You may need a supplementary revenue stream and may go to investors if you really, really need the money. These days, you can build businesses with such a small amount of money that to get investment, you often have to take onerous terms.
If you can at all, bootstrap the company and try to sell it quickly for $20 million.
Buyers will almost always require you to stay with the company. The buyers often put more value on the team than the business. Sometimes, you have to stay on for as long as three years.
A lot of times, companies that are buying are not that much bigger than the companies being acquired.
Question
How appropriate is this advice for a hardware company that actually makes stuff?
Answer
I talk a lot about companies that are online. But the comments about the economy are much bigger than the type of company. Where it is different is where companies have built in a very long discovery cycle. For example, drug companies and hydroelectric companies require longer time frames, investor capital.
Question
How about alternative energy companies?
Answer
Alternate energy, there’s lots of money out there. Entrepreneurs have the upper hand with the investors. There are lots of places to find the capital (though it’s not easy to negotiate).
If you take $10 million from a fund, with a $30 million valuation, the smallest amount the VC will approve for an exit strategy is $300 million. What you’ve done is put yourself in the category of a moonshot. It’s long odds.
Question
Is it possible to combine a funding strategy with an exit strategy?
Answer
There are a small number of companies that will take a minority stake. This also limits your options. Reduces chances of success to have a funder who might have been an acquirer.
Question
If you’re going to take angel investment, is it a smart idea to get angels who are knowledgeable of people in industries that might want to buy you?
Answer
If you can find directors who have contacts with companies that might buy you, that’s great. But it’s not hard to find buyers. To get to the right guy in the right company, you might just need to send an email. You may not require that connection. It’s not hard to find buyers.